{"id":1481,"date":"2012-08-22T13:35:44","date_gmt":"2012-08-22T03:35:44","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/climatereview.net\/ChewTheFat\/?p=1481"},"modified":"2020-10-21T11:51:48","modified_gmt":"2020-10-21T00:51:48","slug":"heat-wave-to-hit-eastern-australia-this-summer-its-official","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatereview.net\/ChewTheFat\/?p=1481","title":{"rendered":"Heat wave to hit Eastern Australia this summer – it’s official."},"content":{"rendered":"

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Groundhog vs Climate Models – a close run thing.<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Australian, government’s models predict warm and sunny months ahead.  Let’s hope they’re right.  But, my money is waiting on seeing how the Groundhog feels about all this… Should we believe the Climate Models that have been wrong for a decade predicting a non-existent<\/a>, Global Warming?<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) are the official, governmental source of weather data in Australia.  They are oft-cited and relied upon by business.  Weather prediction, especially long-term such as more than a few days ahead, is a complex and let’s face it a precarious practice.  Perhaps the judicious use of a specially trained Groundhog would be just as good many a time?  According to folklore<\/a>, if it is cloudy when a groundhog emerges from its burrow on Groundhog Day, then spring will come early.  Excellent, let nature predict nature.  Day-to-day, I work with predictive models that use weather forecasts.  We have, through experience, learnt that even our current, best efforts are haphazard at best.  See the story<\/a> of the devastating, Brisbane floods in 2011 for the travesty of governmental policy relying too heavily on tenuous weather predictions.  BOM, the principal, policy advisors to the Queensland government, created forecasts that had a controversial assumption of Global Warming.  This skewed their results dramatically.  They thus predicted hot and dry; we got cool and wet – very wet.  Weather predictions are worth noting, they are not totally redundant.  But, perhaps, they should currently be taken with a pinch of salt.<\/p>\n

With that said, we can look at the major drivers of weather and for, say the next year, take a stab at whether spring will be early this year after all.  Give the Groundhog a day off.  To do this, you can look no further than the obvious drivers – the “Sun and Sea<\/a>” hypothesis.  In a nutshell, one can monitor the sun’s solar flares and the warmth of the seas that both drive cloud formation and thus one can determine temperature.<\/p>\n

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So what are the “Sun and Sea” telling us Australian, surf lovers about the weather for this year?<\/h2>\n

Last summer …<\/p>\n

We had very low sunspot numbers, a Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO<\/a>) in its cool phase and a strong La Ni\u00f1a (i.e. cool, tropical, Pacific waters).  This lead to a cooler, wetter summer than normal (as predicted by some<\/a>).<\/p>\n

This year …<\/p>\n

a) The sunspot frequency is still relatively low<\/strong>, but on the rise with Solar Cycle 24 hitting a relatively, conservative maximum in perhaps May 2013.<\/a>  Allegedly, Solar Rays deflect background Cosmic Rays.  The latter are cloud seeding nuclei and aid cloud formation.  Thus, having a low sunspot activity leads to more cloud seeding nuclei and more clouds.  Daytime clouds drop temperature.  Well, that’s how the theory<\/a> goes anyway.<\/p>\n

Current sunspot activity<\/h3>\n
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Source – NOAA\/Space Weather Prediction Center<\/p><\/div>\n

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b) The tropics of the Pacific are showing<\/a> a return from previous La Ni\u00f1a conditions to warmer El Ni\u00f1o conditions<\/strong>.  The process goes as follows.  During, an El Ni\u00f1o<\/a> event surface temperatures are warm in the east Pacific Ocean.  This halts the easterly trade winds.  Pressure thus increases over Australia and less oceanic moisture is delivered there.  This reduces cloud cover and thus rainfall, but can increase daytime temperatures.<\/p>\n

Current El Ni\u00f1o formation in the Pacific Ocean<\/h3>\n
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Source – http:\/\/www.bom.gov.au\/climate\/enso\/
Adapted by James Follett<\/p><\/div>\n

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c) As for the long-term, 20 year cycle, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, it is still in an early stage <\/a>of a PDO, Cool Phase<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

So, can this qualitative information on climate drivers give us a quantitative prediction of weather?<\/p>\n

Australian summer 2012 weather prediction<\/h2>\n

Opinion (a): “Sun and Sea” hypothesis – my prediction:<\/span><\/h3>\n