{"id":68,"date":"2011-03-10T15:03:36","date_gmt":"2011-03-10T04:03:36","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/climatereview.net\/ChewTheFat\/?p=68"},"modified":"2011-05-09T13:36:39","modified_gmt":"2011-05-09T03:36:39","slug":"if-carbon-dioxide-co2-is-not-the-main-driver-of-global-warming-what-is-the-well-documented-%e2%80%9csun-and-sea%e2%80%9d-hypothesis-may-be-a-good-place-to-start-looking","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatereview.net\/ChewTheFat\/?p=68","title":{"rendered":"If Carbon Dioxide (CO2) is not the main driver of global warming, what is? The well-documented, \u201cSun and Sea\u201d Hypothesis may be a good place to start looking."},"content":{"rendered":"

CO2<\/sub> is the flavour of the month (err, last 20 years), but, in many ways, it\u2019s hard to justify it as the dominate force driving our climate.\u00a0 We just don\u2019t have substantial evidence supporting it.\u00a0 No, seriously, this is an oft-ignored point, I still await a single bit of evidence to convince me there is anything behind the CO2<\/sub> argument.\u00a0 Science, at the periphery of knowledge, is mostly shades of grey, and thankfully so, or it would be rather dull.\u00a0 However, is there \u201cGlobal Warming\u201d (implicitly defined as CO2<\/sub> driven), well give me one chart of reliable data, I\u2019ll consider it willingly and put the grey back into a black-and-white issue. \u00a0Until we have this, can we explain, at least qualitatively, the alternative, major drivers that are leading to the current global warming?<\/p>\n

Fortunately, the answer is \u201cyes\u201d and these forces, unlike CO2<\/sub>, do<\/em> have substantial amounts of evidence supporting them.<\/p>\n

What are the possible forces?\u00a0 Well, plants absorb CO2<\/sub>, ice reflects sunlight, greenhouse gases absorb sunlight and clouds both absorb and reflect sunlight\u2026 These all influence the Greenhouse effect, which is an important temperature input.\u00a0 But, are they primary drivers of Earth\u2019s climate?\u00a0 What really feeds the system its energy?\u00a0 Well, it\u2019s generally accepted as the sun and the sea.\u00a0 In particular, we could be really looking at the cycles of Sunspots, which are flares of intense magnetic activity, and the ocean currents.\u00a0 It is likely that global temperature is controlled by solar energy and then modulated by that phenomenal sump of energy that is the world\u2019s oceans.\u00a0 The solar and oceanic cycles sometimes offset and sometimes complement each other.\u00a0 The many other influences, such as man-made CO2<\/sub>, are relatively minor and often offset each other.<\/p>\n

The significance of sunspots<\/strong> and ocean currents<\/strong> in driving global temperatures has long been recognised and has stood the test of time. As far back as 1801, William Herschel<\/a> noted an apparent connection between wheat prices and sunspot records.\u00a0 The evidence for both sunspots and ocean currents being the primary drivers of climate change is considerable, so why have we suddenly put the finger of \u201cblame\u201d on CO2<\/sub>?\u00a0 In addition, the current, gentle, warming they drive is far from catastrophic, it is beneficial<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The following video clip from the movie, “Church of Global Warming<\/a>” shows the “sun and sea” hypothesis in action:
\n<\/embed><\/object><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

THE SUN (sunspots)<\/strong><\/h2>\n

The sun\u2019s Total Solar Irradiance<\/a> (i.e. total energy output) does not vary, we believe, too significantly.\u00a0 Thus, how does the sun so noticeably influence Earth\u2019s temperature?\u00a0 Well, if you concentrate instead on the intermittent spikes in intense magnetic activity, i.e. sunspots (or flares), then you have something to work with.\u00a0 Sunspot activity is highly variable and could reasonably account for the drastic modulations in Earth\u2019s weather.<\/p>\n

Global Warming has been happening for 400 years (not<\/strong> just during the last century of industrialisation as the IPCC quite controversially suggest with their famous Hockey Stick evidence – video here<\/a>).\u00a0 In addition, it correlates well with sunspot levels, as seen by direct, observational data by astronomers.\u00a0 Since the Maunder Minimum (virtually no sunspots) of the 1600s, both sunspot number and global temperature have risen with a strong, significant correlation:<\/p>\n

\"400<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

A sunspot in action \u2013 it\u2019s affect on the Earth\u2019s magnetic field (the Aurora Borealis<\/a> is a frequently seen demonstration of its effects on our atmosphere’s chemistry):<\/p>\n

\"Sunspot<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/p>\n

THE SEA (ocean currents)<\/strong><\/h2>\n

What are the “Pacific Decadal Oscillation” (PDO) and “El Ni\u00f1o \/ <\/strong>La Ni\u00f1a<\/strong>“?\u00a0 And why are they important in climate change?<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201cEl Nino \/ La Nina\u201d, which are two sides of the same coin, \u00a0and the \u201cPacific Decadal Oscillation\u201d (PDO) are both ocean currents.\u00a0 They are both in the Pacific, the former being equatorial, the latter in the north.\u00a0 Both oscillate between warming and cooling phases of sea surface temperature (SST), which are above or below long-term averages.\u00a0 For \u201cEl Nino \/ La Nina\u201d, El Nino is the negative, warming phase, La Nina is the positive, cooling phase.\u00a0 Conversely, for the PDO, a warming phase is called \u201cpositive\u201d and the cooling as \u201cnegative\u201d.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a> <\/em><\/p>\n

In particular, El Nino refers to the \textensive warming of the central and \teastern Pacific that leads to a major shift in weather patterns \tacross the Pacific.\u00a0 This includes<\/a> increased convection or cloudiness in the central \t\ttropical Pacific Ocean and weaker easterly, trade winds.\u00a0 \tIn eastern Australia, however, these events are associated with an increased \tprobability of drier conditions.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Adapted from: BOM<\/a><\/strong><\/h6>\n
During, a neutral or La Nina event surface temperatures are cool in the east Pacific Ocean.\u00a0 Thus, Air travels to the low pressure in the west tropics (this process is known as the “trade winds”).\u00a0 En route, the air warms and moistens, which leads to clouds in Australia that increase local rainfall, but noticeably decreases daytime temperatures.<\/address>\n

 
\n\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Adapted from: BOM<\/a><\/strong><\/h6>\n
During, an El Nino event surface temperatures are warm in the east Pacific Ocean.\u00a0 This halts the easterly trade winds.\u00a0 Pressure thus increases over Australia and less oceanic moisture is delivered there.\u00a0 This reduces cloud cover and thus rainfall, but can increase daytime temperatures.<\/address>\n

 
\nFor more on El Nino \/ La Nina check here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

This is Roy Spencer\u2019s<\/a> (recognised, satellite data, analysis guru) take on the PDO and El Nino:<\/p>\n

\u201cThe Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is an internal switch between two slightly different circulation patterns that occurs every 30 years or so in the North Pacific Ocean. It was originally described in 1997 in the context of salmon production. It has a positive (warm) phase that tends to warm the land masses of the Northern Hemisphere, as well as a negative (cool) phase.<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/p>\n

Like the El Nino and La Nina oscillation of the tropical Pacific (also called the El Nino \u2013 Southern Oscillation, or ENSO), the PDO represents two different average circulation states that the ocean-atmosphere system seems to have a difficult time choosing between. But whereas ENSO changes every few years, the PDO changes every thirty years or so. This long time scale makes the PDO a potential key player in climate change.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n


\n<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/em> <\/em><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/p>\n

Why does the ocean surface temperature matter?<\/strong> <\/em><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/p>\n

Ocean surface temperatures influence the air temperature above them and evaporation rates.\u00a0 High temperatures lead to increased cloud cover, which can lead to warming or, bizarrely, cooling depending on the type of clouds formed and their altitude. \u00a0Even the IPCC, who like to blame it all on CO2<\/sub>, acknowledge this:<\/p>\n

\u201c\u2026cloud feedbacks remain the largest source of uncertainty\u2026\u201d\u00a0 (IPCC Report 2007<\/a>)<\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201cOcean Conyevour Belt\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n

This is a note of clarification.\u00a0 A lot is made of the PDO in the climate change debate and perhaps rightly so, however, this may be a debate bias because most of the oceanographic research comes out of the U.S.\u00a0 The PDO is a significant part of the \u201cOcean Conyevour Belt\u201d<\/a> (the global, continuous, ocean current circuit), but we should remember that it is still only one part of it:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

CONCLUSION<\/strong><\/h2>\n

The main drivers of global temperature are probably the sunspot levels and the ocean current temperatures. There are other short-term, temperature drivers (such as CO2<\/sub>), but Global Warming alarmists chose to gloss over the well-known, long standing evidence.\u00a0 The weight of this evidence indicates that it is the combination of the \u201csun and sea\u201d that most likely drives global temperature.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

CO2 is the flavour of the month (err, last 20 years), but, in many ways, it\u2019s hard to justify it as the dominate force driving our climate.\u00a0 We just don\u2019t have substantial evidence supporting it.\u00a0 No, seriously, this is an … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[358,15,16,54,32,17,9,11],"class_list":["post-68","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-climate-drivers","tag-climate-drivers","tag-climate-forcings","tag-co2","tag-el-nino","tag-la-nina","tag-ocean-currents","tag-pacific-decadal-oscillation","tag-sunspots"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatereview.net\/ChewTheFat\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/68","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatereview.net\/ChewTheFat\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatereview.net\/ChewTheFat\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatereview.net\/ChewTheFat\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatereview.net\/ChewTheFat\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=68"}],"version-history":[{"count":73,"href":"https:\/\/climatereview.net\/ChewTheFat\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/68\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":75,"href":"https:\/\/climatereview.net\/ChewTheFat\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/68\/revisions\/75"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatereview.net\/ChewTheFat\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=68"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatereview.net\/ChewTheFat\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=68"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatereview.net\/ChewTheFat\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=68"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}