{"id":8,"date":"2011-03-09T10:52:46","date_gmt":"2011-03-09T10:52:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/climatereview.net\/ChewTheFat\/?p=8"},"modified":"2011-05-02T14:40:26","modified_gmt":"2011-05-02T04:40:26","slug":"australian-bureau-of-meteorology-bom-warned-queensland-premier-anna-bligh-of-the-wet-summer-to-come-the-floods-were-avoidable","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatereview.net\/ChewTheFat\/?p=8","title":{"rendered":"Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) warned Queensland premier (Anna Bligh) of the wet summer to come.  The Jan 2011 floods were avoidable?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong> <\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Here\u2019s my take on the recent flooding on the Eastern Sea Board\u00a0 of Australia \u2013 I looked at Queensland state, but the Victorian flooding story does have many parallels to it.\u00a0 This is especially in terms of bureaucratic restriction on water management preventing the use of common sense.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The Queensland story:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) told the politicians (Anna Bligh&#8217;s party) that      we are on for a hot, dry summer, at the beginning of spring (Sept\u2019      10) or probably way before that.\u00a0 However, by December, we were in record- breaking rainfalls and BOM\u2019s      previous, quarterly, weather forecast was almost completely shown to be      wrong. Why were they so wrong? Well, that\u2019s perhaps because they were trusting too much in      their all-seeing, Global Warming biased, \u201cclimate models\u201d. They were ignoring the well-documented, climate <a title=\"The Super La Nina and the Coming Winter\" href=\"http:\/\/www.theartofweather.com\/super_la_nina.html\" target=\"_blank\">fundamentals <\/a>(the current super La Nina, a cool Pacific Decadal Oscillation [ie pacific surface      waters], and the very low sunspot number).\u00a0 These fundamentals pointed to a cooler, wetter year and they unsurprisingly (as much as weather can ever be described as this) came to fruition.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Evidence:<a href=\"http:\/\/www.warwickhughes.com\/blog\/?p=712\"><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.warwickhughes.com\/blog\/?p=712\">http:\/\/www.warwickhughes.com\/blog\/?p=712<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><a rel=\"attachment wp-att-14\" href=\"https:\/\/climatereview.net\/ChewTheFat\/?attachment_id=14\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-14\" title=\"Spring2010 BOM backtest\" src=\"https:\/\/climatereview.net\/ChewTheFat\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/03\/Spring2010-BOM-backtest1.gif\" alt=\"\" width=\"640\" height=\"625\" \/><\/a><br \/>\n<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">BOM said\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Reality<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>BOM were proven significantly      wrong by Dec\u201910.\u00a0 However, they had the integrity to cut their losses and admit their      error.\u00a0 <strong>On17th December, they reversed their summer forecast<\/strong>; no longer was it hot and dry, but cooler and wetter than normal.\u00a0 This reversal is currently a little known fact.\u00a0 I have seen it published nowhere in the media.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Evidence:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe chances of receiving <strong>above<\/strong> median rainfall during the January to March period are between 60 and 70% across the eastern half of NSW, southeastern Queensland and western WA.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.bom.gov.au\/climate\/ahead\/archive\/rainfall\/20101217.shtml\">http:\/\/www.bom.gov.au\/climate\/ahead\/archive\/rainfall\/20101217.sht<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a rel=\"attachment wp-att-12\" href=\"https:\/\/climatereview.net\/ChewTheFat\/?attachment_id=12\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-12\" title=\"Dec17 BOM forecast\" src=\"https:\/\/climatereview.net\/ChewTheFat\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/03\/Dec17-BOM-forecast.bmp\" alt=\"\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Anna Bligh, and all      politicians, can play safe by claiming they made decisions on the best      advice available to them; sensible politics. They just need to go along with their      expert advisers.\u00a0 In this case, BOM said, &#8220;prepare for a wet summer in      Southeastern Queensland [i.e. Brisbane]&#8221;.\u00a0 It is possible that the message between advisers (BOM) and exec. (Anna Bligh) never got through.\u00a0 So, perhaps the benefit of the doubt should prevail? However, that would be a pretty disappointing failure in governance as water management is of the utmost importance.\u00a0 Assuming, the message did get through, wouldn\u2019t she have been      prudent, in the face of continuing very heavy rain, to lower the dam      levels to the long-run, normal level of 75%?\u00a0 This is a safe way to hedge your bets and that&#8217;s what politicians are expert at (see <a href=\"http:\/\/www.theaustralian.com.au\/national-affairs\/release-is-proof-that-wivenhoe-dam-bosses-messed-up-in-flood-crisis-say-victims\/story-fn59niix-1226005963259\">here<\/a> for recent acknowledgment by Bligh herself that this is the safe level      for flood headroom).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>Anna Bligh, however, decided to maintain      Wivenhoe Dam, and the others that service the catchment, at 100% capacity, since Feb\u201910.\u00a0 Shouldn\u2019t this &#8220;drought      level&#8221; have been lowered to the 75% considering the updated, summer      forecast advice from BOM?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Evidence:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The water board&#8217;s own data shows the long-term 75% water level, the elevated 100%, &#8220;drought level&#8221; and the final spill over flood level of 195% of Jan 11th 2011.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.seqwater.com.au\/public\/dam-levels\">http:\/\/www.seqwater.com.au\/public\/dam-levels<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a rel=\"attachment wp-att-13\" href=\"https:\/\/climatereview.net\/ChewTheFat\/?attachment_id=13\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-13\" title=\"Wivenhoe Dam levels\" src=\"https:\/\/climatereview.net\/ChewTheFat\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/03\/Wivenhoe-Dam-levels.bmp\" alt=\"\" width=\"640\" height=\"480\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<h2>Conslusion<\/h2>\n<p>The irony is that Anna Bligh\u2019s <a href=\"http:\/\/www.canberratimes.com.au\/news\/opinion\/editorial\/general\/queensland-crucial-to-labor\/2115790.aspx?storypage=0\" target=\"_blank\"> popularity <\/a>went through the roof because of the resultant, flood      management campaign.\u00a0 A flood danger that she was given fair warning about from her top advisers a month beforehand.\u00a0 During the flood itself, she was in a seemingly, permanent disaster recovery, press conference on T.V.\u00a0\u00a0 Wouldn&#8217;t it be a real twist of fate if was re-elected solely from popularity that resulted from a disaster      that she helped instigate?<\/p>\n<ul><\/ul>\n<p>P.S. For information on the short-term, mismanagement of the Brisbane dams check <a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.news.com.au\/heraldsun\/andrewbolt\/index.php\/heraldsun\/comments\/wivenhoe_48_hours_too_late\/\">Wivenhoe: 48 hours too late<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Here\u2019s my take on the recent flooding on the Eastern Sea Board\u00a0 of Australia \u2013 I looked at Queensland state, but the Victorian flooding story does have many parallels to it.\u00a0 This is especially in terms of bureaucratic restriction on &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/climatereview.net\/ChewTheFat\/?p=8\">Continue reading <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[6,5,31,8,32,7],"class_list":["post-8","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-brisbane-floods","tag-anna-bligh","tag-bureau-of-meteorology","tag-election","tag-floods","tag-la-nina","tag-queensland"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatereview.net\/ChewTheFat\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatereview.net\/ChewTheFat\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatereview.net\/ChewTheFat\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatereview.net\/ChewTheFat\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatereview.net\/ChewTheFat\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=8"}],"version-history":[{"count":17,"href":"https:\/\/climatereview.net\/ChewTheFat\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":297,"href":"https:\/\/climatereview.net\/ChewTheFat\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8\/revisions\/297"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatereview.net\/ChewTheFat\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=8"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatereview.net\/ChewTheFat\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=8"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatereview.net\/ChewTheFat\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=8"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}